Indonesia's Economic Diplomacy Agenda at the Southern Stage

In the 19th century, there was a heated conflict between the Western Block and the Eastern Block based on ideological views. The United States issued the "Marshall Plan," which was responded by the Soviet Union with the issuance of the "Molotov Plan." Both competed for hegemony in terms of economics, technology, armament, and even space travel.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Warsaw Pact emerged as a form of military diplomacy to find allies.

Also read: Indonesia in a Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Vortex

In the midst of the fragility of cooperation between countries due to the cold war, Indonesia emerged to play free and active politics by opening up opportunities for dialogue and encouraging solidarity among Asian and African countries in order to maintain the centrality of the southern region and developing countries .

Therefore, the Asia-Africa Conference was held in 1955 and the Non-Aligned Movement was initiated as a form of solidarity among southern regions in responding to the fragile global situation at that time.

Now, is the global complexity and rivalry that is occurring a real form of passiveness in our role in the southern region and the world?

Looking at current global conditions, it is clear that it cannot be denied the emergence of various new forces that can make the world characterized by Brittle, anxious, non-linear, andincomprehensible (BANI). These various problems are a form of correction for hypocritical democracy and the double standards of Western countries in their attitude to various global issues or conflicts.

In various current economic policies, Western countries initially believed in cooperation and dialogue within the framework of bilateral, multilateral, and regional cooperation. However, even a superpower like the United States has temporarily withdrawn from the World Health Organization (WHO) on July 6, 2021. The Brexit event on February 1, 2020, also surprised the world.

Western nations often apply double standards in imposing economic sanctions. For example, there were around 16,000 sanctions imposed by the US and its allies for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, not a single sanction was given to Israel for its continued attacks on Palestine.

Western countries initially echoed free trade as an effort towards inclusive cooperation. However, this has become a hypocritical statement as the reality is that they have started trade wars, embargoes, and currently forming conservative policies in international trade with the presence of the Deforestation Law in the European Union and the Inflation Reduction Act that has been enacted in 2022 by the United States.

Geopolitical turbulence

The BANI phenomenon must be anticipated by various countries because it can cause serious losses amidst various other global agendas, such as the energy transition, net zero emissions, and changes in behavior in responding to climate change. The rivalry that is currently occurring is not only between two hegemonic power blocks, but can also occur between proxy servers because it is very possible that there will be a proxy war.

In the future, the geopolitical competition between the Western and Eastern blocks will ease slightly, but the competition of Geopolitics 5.0 will strengthen. This begins with the emergence of the Northern and Southern regional blocs.

Western countries also often apply double standards when imposing economic sanctions.

The Indo-Pacific region and the South China Sea will become the epicenter of conflicts over resource claims. Papua's position amidst the increasing escalation of armed criminal groups also needs to be monitored as it is influenced by western interests.

Geopolitical competition will become world war blue based on cyber armies. There, IoT, AI, blockchain and remote sensing technologies will compete to win the global arena. This phenomenon is just starting to happen with many countries forming a 4th cyber-based military force to collect data into big data, study and influence human algorithms.

Future global wars will also be characterized by the use of high-frequency active auroral technology. Many parties believe that this is unlikely to happen across other countries' jurisdictions, but the absence of regulations will raise concerns about global conflict amidst the increasing frequency of nuclear weapons.

Upcoming conflicts will also be colored by economic competition. In the 21st century, China is believed to become the world's largest economy with a 22.68 percent share, reaching 101 trillion US dollars amid the current economic slowdown in the country.

Competition between global cooperation forums, namely the G7, European Union, OECD, ASEAN, MIKTA and BRICS, is considered to be very fierce. The key to global competition in the future is a country that can hold oil and energy reserves. Apart from that, it also embraces island countries as "investments" in the United Nations to win votes in decision making.

Indonesia's role

Indonesia needs to redefine "free and active politics" by restoring the centrality in the global political arena. As a large country, Indonesia must become a carrier of South-South proposals to the international world.

This is done by improving the economy, as well as reviving the solidarity of the southern region which has been Indonesia's social capital in facing global complexity.

The role of archipelagic countries will be the key for Indonesia through synergy of non-aligned movement's strengths by bringing cooperation among developing countries. Solidarity among developing countries can be invoked with Indonesia's economic model currently receiving international attention.

Indonesia must also actively collect capital from the G7, OECD, European Union, BRICS and MIKTA countries so that it can encourage soft lending facilities to developing countries. This form of economic diplomacy will restore international confidence in Indonesia's role.

Indonesia needs to redefine "free and active politics", namely by restoring centrality in the global political arena.

Domestically, there is an awareness that Indonesia is being surrounded by various defense pacts such as AUKUS, QUAD, and the potential reincarnation of SEATO which could become a threat. Therefore, military diplomacy is needed to strengthen domestic weapons. Indonesia's position could be bargaining to buy weapons accompanied by technology transfer.

Indonesia's foreign policy needs to be based on five main values: competency, integrity, accountability, conscience and compassion, as social capital.

The question is, will the international world's trust in Indonesia, especially in facing global BANI, reach full or saturation point?

Jonathan Ersten Herawan,Junior Analyst Central Management of the Indonesian Economic Undergraduate Association