The Burden of Arsenal's "Elephant" Prediction

The issue of air pollution is not new. The conditions of society being threatened by air pollution have long been present. There is also a significant amount of research evidence that shows the threats posed by the impacts of air pollution. However, these have not yet led to any significant efforts in controlling air pollution. As a result, residents are increasingly suffering, living amidst air pollution. For instance, according to the supercomputer Opta's predictions, Arsenal's chances of winning the league are only 19%, far behind Liverpool (35%) and City (46%). This estimate is made using data simulations based on Opta's team rankings as well as their performances, both current and past.

The battle for the title will narrow when Arsenal visit City's home at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday (31/3/2024). Interestingly, even if they win, Arsenal are still not favored. Liverpool, if they also win against Brighton, will lead the race (44 percent), followed by Arsenal (36 percent) and City (20 percent).

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There is only one scenario that makes Arsenal the favorite, namely if Arsenal wins at the Etihad Stadium and Liverpool loses points. The chances of the team coached by Mikel Arteta will increase drastically to 45 percent. However, it looks like Arsenal will need a lot of miracles this weekend to make that happen.

Opta does not favor Arsenal until now with strong evidence. One of them is that City and Liverpool will emerge as winners this weekend. Arsenal did indeed succeed in defeating City 1-0 in their first meeting at home, last October. However, the Etihad Stadium will offer a different experience.

The team has never been defeated in the last 38 home matches in all competitions (33 wins, 5 draws), since their loss to Brentford in November 2022. The team coached by Josep Guardiola also has an excellent record when facing Arsenal in the league, with 12 wins and 1 loss. The home advantage is expected to be the differentiating factor.

We must go to Etihad, a very difficult place. However, if we want to surpass the barrier (champions), we have to go there and win.

The same goes for Liverpool. It's hard to see Mohamed Salah and his teammates not winning against the inconsistent Brighton. They will perform in front of their home audience at Anfield Stadium. Liverpool has never lost in their last 26 home league matches, including winning 20 of them.

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Mental impact and schedule for Arsenal

Nielsen's data expert, Gracenote, also made championship predictions which were published on BBC Sport. Arsenal is ranked bottom with a 19 percent chance. Only City (44 percent) and Liverpool (37 percent) are slightly different. According to Gracenote's Head of Analysis Simon Gleave, Arsenal's track record is influential.

In March 2023, Arsenal still tops the standings as it does now. However, their performance suddenly drops and is followed by City as the champion. "City can turn the competition from a 50/50 situation into a title certainty in less than a month," said Gleave about City's advantage in critical moments.

According to Gleave, Arsenal also has a tougher schedule compared to the other two teams. "The Gunners" are still going to face six teams from the top ten rankings. Five of them are away matches, including matches against big teams such as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.

Meanwhile, City and Liverpool have faced each other before the international break. "City and Liverpool will also have six matches against the top ten teams. The difference is, City will play at home four times, while Liverpool three times," said Gleave.

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Even so, the prediction is nothing more than an initial picture. Arsenal's squad will determine their own fate. Arsenal comes to the Etihad Stadium with a record of eight consecutive wins as well as an impressive note of scoring 33 goals and conceding only 4 goals. If they can continue with this positive trend, they will change the competition landscape.

"We have to go to Etihad, a very difficult place. However, if we want to surpass the barrier (champions), we have to go there and win. We have to show our toughness and character that this team is the best. We have full confidence to bring positive results," said Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice.

Of all the existing predictions, there is one crucial question. Is Arsenal still the same "Elephant" as last year, or have they learned from their mistakes? A glimpse of the answer to this question will begin to appear after the weekend match at Etihad Stadium. (AP/REUTERS)